The Strada Statale 268 is a highway that crosses the eastern area of ​​the city Naples Metro, as indicated by Wikipedia. It is a long snake that embraces Vesuvius from the north-east, it is in fact also called Strada Statale del Vesuvio, it has a length of about 27 km. It is also called the road of death given the continuous fatal accidents that have occurred for decades.
It is also and above all one of the arteries identified in the evacuation plan of the red zone following an imminent eruption of Vesuvius.
In addition to the motorway infrastructure that has been said, inside or near of the Red Zone
the following arches of the primary regional road network are occupied by the exodus flows:
1) SS268 “del Vesuvius”
2) SS268 Fitting
3) ex SS162dir “of the Management Centre”
4) SP1 “Circumvallazione di Napoli”
5) SS7bis "Support Axis" variant
6) SS7IV “Domitiana”
From Removal planning - Resolution of the Campania Region n.8 of January 17, 2017 page 19.
Having said this, the aim of this article is go and estimate the population that resides within a radius of 1,000 m and 2,500 m from this important road artery and try to evaluate its efficiency and usability. in the event of an eruption of Vesuvius.
To do this I extracted from OpenStreetMap only the SS268, from the portal from ISTAT I instead downloaded the census cells and tables of the resident population in 2011 (last year of official census).
Once I obtained this data I carried out a buffer from the SS268 with the distances indicated previously, therefore 1 and 2.5 KM. Subsequently, with a spatial selection operation, between the two buffers obtained towards the census cells, I extracted only the census cells that fall within the buffer areas under examination.
From these operations it turns out that:
- 112,319 people live within 1,000 m of the SS268
- 325,874 people live within 2,500 m of the SS268
Considering that, according to ISTAT data, Italian families are made up of almost 3 people on average, è The number of families that fall respectively in an area of ​​radius 1,000 m and 2,500 m from the Strada Statale del Vesuvio is estimated at 37,400 and 108,625.
Considering that in every Italian family there is at least one car and considering that the average length of a family car is 4 m,is The length of the queue that would be generated respectively by the cars of those residing in an area with a radius of 1,000 m and 2,500 m from the Strada Statale del Vesuvio is estimated at 149,760 m and 434,500 m.
From the images you have seen previously, freely available on Google Street View, it is clear that the highway in question is to one lane in each direction apart from a stretch of a few kilometers where there are works to widen it (work that has been going on and on for years). This means this important artery of approximately 27 km in length (54 km considering both directions), which in the event of a disaster will see even the passage of emergency vehicles is inadequate to accommodate those fleeing the eruption.
Of course it's not said that all families residing in these identified areas choose to use the SS268 but it is very likely that they will do so since it is the largest highway close.
A convention is active between ANAS and the Campania Region to double the SS268, an agreement which from 2016 to 2020 provides for an investment of 304 million euros. From the slides in the previous link it would seem that the work is now coming to an end but the reality is very different and the works are far from being completed. Let us hope that the modernization and doubling works finish before the next eruption of Vesuvius and do not last as long as those for the completion of the Salerno-Reggio Calabria!